Should You Buy Netflix (NFLX) Before the Stock Split? Here’s What to Know

November 6, 2025

Someone recently asked me if they should buy Netflix before the stock split.

Good question, but my first thought was, what’s your time horizon?

Are we talking years? Months? Weeks? Days? Because your time horizon changes everything.

Before jumping in, I wanted to look at the historical data, what typically happens to stocks before and after they split.

What Happens to Stocks After a Split?

According to a NASDAQ analysis, companies that split their stock tend to see a short-term bump in price.

On average, they’ve returned around 25–30% in the year following the split, outperforming the market’s historical average of about 10-12%.

But that rise isn’t because of the split itself.

The split usually reflects positive sentiment. Investors are excited, the company’s growing but the split doesn’t fundamentally change the business. It’s more of a short-term excitement factor than a long-term catalyst.

Looking Back: Netflix’s Last Split (2015)

Let’s go back to Netflix’s 7-for-1 stock split in July 2015.

The stock gapped up immediately after, showing a burst of enthusiasm but then went flat for nearly a year.

Twelve months later, Netflix was actually trading about 13% lower than right after the gap up.

For long-term investors, that was fine. You had a full year to dollar-cost average into roughly the same price zone.

But for short-term traders, that kind of sideways movement can tie up capital and limit opportunity. If your trades typically last a few weeks or months, that would have been a frustrating stretch.

Why Intention Matters

This is where your intention becomes everything.

What are you trying to get out of this trade or investment?

If you’re investing long-term 5, 10, 20 years you’re not sweating the perfect entry. You care about the bigger trend. You’re analyzing whether the company itself continues to grow and compound.

In that case, technical analysis helps you confirm the broader structure: is the stock still trending up overall? For Netflix, the monthly chart continues to show higher highs and higher lows that’s your signal that the long-term picture remains intact.

But if you’re trading short-term a few weeks or months your goals are completely different. You need to define risk, know your zones, and wait for confirmation instead of chasing momentum.

Time Frame Defines Your Plan

So the real question isn’t “Should I buy before the split?”

It’s “Am I investing or trading this?”

Your time frame defines your plan.

Long-term investors focus on trend direction, company fundamentals, and buying quality names consistently.
Swing traders look for setups and patterns on weekly or daily charts, manage risk tightly, and move on when the edge disappears.

For investors, the monthly chart smooths out the noise.

For traders, the weekly and daily charts give structure to manage entries, exits, and stops.

A Quick Look at Netflix Right Now

On the monthly chart, Netflix remains in a clear uptrend.
On the weekly, price is approaching a key trendline from the 2021 highs a level worth watching.
On the daily, it’s sitting below the VWAPs from both the April lows and June highs.

My view: if price holds this area and breaks above those VWAPs with strength, it could confirm continuation. But until then, risk is clearly defined and patience pays.

Final Thoughts

It’s not just about the stock split.

It’s about your intent, your time horizon, and your plan.

Next time you’re thinking about buying a stock “before something happens,” pause and ask:

“Am I investing for the next decade… or trading the next few candles?”

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