Inflation Cooling off?

Morning Scoop

Yesterday morning was a bit of a chaotic one for me – technical problems and internet issues seemed to be conspiring against me. I even had to shut down the trading side of things when my signals weren’t successful, but unfortunately that led to my broker closing out a trade and promptly opening a position on the opposite side of what I wanted. Needless to say, I needed to step away from the computers for a bit and regroup! But today’s a new day, and hopefully things will go a bit more smoothly. Let’s dive in and see what the markets have in store!



📰 News

Good news – the CPI numbers are out this morning! The forecast was 5.1%, but the actual number for March came in at 5%, indicating that inflation is slowly coming down.

📈📉 S&P 500 Futures Update
daily chart

Right now, the markets are really squeezing us into a tight range. As I’ve mentioned before, it’s crucial that we manage to break through the overhead supply in order to establish a new level of support. But for that to happen, price needs to keep working its way higher – easier said than done! In the meantime, we’ll need to stay vigilant and keep a close eye on what the market decides to do next.

🔮 Forecast
4 hour chart

Here, we can see that we’re nicely basing on the 4-hour chart, with a double bottom forming at support and holding steady. Now, let’s zoom in even further and take a closer look at what’s happening internally.

Now, let’s take a closer look at the 1-hour chart to get a better idea of what’s happening, now that we know the higher time frame outlook. Here, we can see that we need to clear above the white resistance line to maintain our position above it. If we manage to push through, we’ll have a much stronger chance of heading higher, but if not, we might make our way back down to support. With the release of the CPI data, it’ll be interesting to see how the markets react!

Chart Analysis

As I’m finishing up the rest of this newsletter, I decided to take a quick peek at how futures are reacting after the CPI data release – and sure enough, they’ve already shot right through! Now, the question is whether this level can hold, or if we’ll get pushed back down and this was just a shakeout. With lots of potential for volatility today, anything could happen!


With CPI and FOMC coming up, we knew to expect some volatility over the next couple of days. It’s likely that we’ll see strong moves on both ends as players try to shake things up before making the final move. It’s important to stay patient and wait for the trades to come to you, rather than trading out of FOMO.


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