Morning Scoop
I hope you had a great weekend, and a happy Monday to you! ☕️ Assuming you’ve had your coffee by now, let’s dive into what’s on the agenda for today and what happened over the weekend.
Markets
News
– UBS has agreed to purchase Credit Suisse in yet another government-brokered arrangement aimed at shoring up the financial system. However, concerns persist about the future of banking, and we’re seeing it unravel before us every day.
– Later this week, Powell is set to speak, and his decision regarding rates could have significant implications. The financial system feels fragile, and a wrong move could potentially accelerate its decline.
S&P 500 Futures Update
At present, the futures market is holding steady, with the chart reflecting activity over the past week. While there has been some movement, price is now beginning to break above the current horizontal line. If we can continue to push higher from here, it would be a positive development in the short term.
Forecast
For today to be a green day, we need to break above the current level. However, given the recent banking news and Powell’s upcoming speech, it’s likely that we’ll see more choppy market conditions, similar to what we’ve experienced over the last 12 months. Swing traders and those holding positions overnight may not find these conditions favorable. Instead, it may be better to focus on quick day moves. You don’t want to be caught on the wrong side of a big up or down day that goes against your position.
Chart Analysis
TSLA is currently at a very interesting level for me. There are a few factors to consider here, so let’s take a closer look and see what the best course of action is.
Bear Case
The price has broken the upward trend, forming a rounding pattern and falling below the levels of the horizontal white line. It then retraced back into the zone that was just broken, and fell again, bringing us to where we are now.
Additionally, the 100-day moving average is merging with the 200-day moving average and is on the cusp of crossing it, which typically signals a trend change.
Bull Case
The price has fallen below the levels of the horizontal white line, but it has broken the resistance line of the downtrend. It then made a push up to a new resistance zone and pulled back, presenting us with a potential pullback opportunity at the current price level.
On the 65-minute chart, the MACD is starting to rise above the 0 line, while the 4-hour MACD has crossed but remains below the 0 line.
Wrap-up
It’s hard to predict which direction the market will move in today, so I anticipate volatility and am prepared for both scenarios. I’ve created a game plan for the day, with moves prepared for both an upward or downward movement in the market. The most important thing is to stick to the game plan and not deviate from it. Let’s stay focused and make informed trades today!
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